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An automobile plant contracted to buy shock absorbers from two suppliers X and Y. X supplies 60% and Y supplies 40% of the shock absorbers. All shock absorbers are subjected to a quality test. The ones that pass the quality test are considered reliable. Of X’s shock absorbers, 96% are reliable. Of Y’s shock absorbers, 72% are reliable.
The probability that a randomly chosen shock absorber, which is found to be reliable, is made by Y is