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Examining output probability distribution (an example)




1.  Simulation is similar to statistical sampling (generating scenarios, is equivalent to ‘sampling’ values for the output variable)
2.  Assumption: the 100 scenarios (sample size) are independent and randonly generated
3.  To find out the true output with 95% confidence, calculate the confidence interval
4.  If the scenarios generated are random, than the variability of the estimate of the true expected value of output will be s/√n .


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